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30/11/2023 - 09:13 UTCFollowing a series of declines, the U.S. dollar seems to be taking a breather on Wednesday, with the index (USDX) posting a moderate increase of 0.10% to end the session close to the 102.8 mark. The move came following a report on U.S. gross domestic product that exceeded forecasts of 5.0% and showed an increase of 5.2% in the last quarter.
Reports indicate that markets are waiting to see whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will support comments made earlier this week by Fed Governor Waller, cementing a possible rate cut in the coming months. According to the CME Group Fed Watch Tool, the possibility that a 25-basis points rate cut will come as early as March is at 44.5%, while in May, that probability is at 48.6%.
Wall street activity remains subdued on Wednesday, with the main stock indices ending the session almost unchanged apart from the energy sector where some price action is observed. The main oil benchmarks WTI and Brent continue to recover from last week’s losses on Wednesday, rising by another 1.34% and 1.19% respectively on the iFOREX platform and moving further up early on Thursday. Some price action could be seen later in the session, upon the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting that could possibly shed some light on the level of supply cuts that will take place next year.
A flurry of economic reports is due to be released on Thursday, including among others, consumer prices from the eurozone and Canada’s GDP while later in the session, U.S. Chicago PMI, weekly jobless claims, personal income and spending and pending home sales are due. In the spotlight for Thursday is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that is expected to show an increase of 0.2% in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
On the earnings front, quarterly reports from Kroger, UiPath and Dell Technologies are due later in the day.
The EUR/USD hit a fresh three-month high at 1.1016 but failed to hold above 1.1000 and pulled back ending the day with moderate losses of 0.28%.
In Germany, inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 3.2% on an annual basis in November from 3.8% in October, below the market expectation of 3.5%. In Spain, the annual rate slowed from 3.5% to 3.2%.
Data released on Wednesday revealed that the US economy expanded in the third quarter at a 5.2% annualized rate, above the previously reported 4.9%.
Later today US data to be released includes the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the weekly Jobless Claims, while Eurostat will release Eurozone CPI.
Gold firmed near its highest in about seven months on Wednesday as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by the first half of next year boosted the outlook for the precious metal.
The trend pointed to easing pressure on gold from high interest rates, a trade that had battered the yellow metal over the past 18 months.
But markets were now awaiting more cues on U.S. inflation from PCE price index data for October, due later in the day. The reading is the preferred inflation gauge of the Fed and is likely to factor into the bank’s stance on interest rates in the coming months.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors focused their attention on expectations of fresh supply cuts from OPEC+ and looked past a jump in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stockpiles.
U.S. weekly crude stockpiles rose by roughly 1.6M barrels in the week ended Nov. 14, confounding expectations of a draw of about 933,000 barrels.
Hopes of potential output cuts by major oil producers were boosted by a Wall Street Journal report Wednesday, suggesting that a cut of as much as 1 million barrels a day was under consideration.
U.S. stocks edged lower on Wednesday as a robust upward GDP revision eased recession fears, while Federal Reserve officials' remarks raised questions about the duration of the central bank's restrictive policy.
The US Tech 100 and US 500 ended the day with minor losses, while the US 30 ended nominally higher, as investors took a wait-and-see position ahead of today's crucial personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report.
In other news, General Motors rose more 9% after detailing plans to launch an accelerated $10 billion stock buyback programme. CrowdStrike Holdings rose 10% as the cybersecurity firm forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, driven by resilient demand for its cybersecurity offerings.
Market participants will be closely monitoring personal consumption expenditures data. Other releases include personal income and spending, pending home sales, Chicago PMI, as well as weekly jobless claims and a speech from the FOMC's Williams.
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