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06/12/2024 - 08:03 UTCThe U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies on Thursday, with the dollar index down by 0.58% as investors refrained from making substantial bets on the dollar before the release of the highly anticipated nonfarm payroll figures. This economic indicator is expected to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. Market consensus suggests a strong rebound in job growth for November, following a less impressive October report. Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, currently stand at 70.1%, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.
All three major U.S. stock indexes retreated from record highs on Thursday, as markets assessed the latest earnings and labor market data, ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report. Initial jobless claims in the US increased to 224,000 for the week ending November 30th, exceeding the revised prior week's figure of 215,000 and market expectations. Despite this upward trend, analysts maintain their optimistic outlook for the labor market, with non-farm payrolls projected to increase by over 200,000 jobs in November, following a small gain of 12,000 in the previous month.
Oil prices declined on Thursday as market participants focused on subdued global demand for crude. The downward pressure on prices came after the OPEC+ group announced its decision to delay the start of planned output increases until April 2024 and extend its deep production cuts to the end of 2026. This move by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies aims to support oil prices by limiting supply.
Bitcoin experienced a decline on Thursday, following a short-lived surge past the significant $100,000 level. As investors anticipated further indications regarding U.S. interest rates, some profit-taking emerged, leading to a downward correction in the world's largest cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin rally was mainly fueled by increased optimism surrounding potential regulatory easing for cryptocurrencies, however, crypto funds appear to be shifting to lower cap altcoins in the past week.
For Friday, markets will most likely be focusing on the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and the US unemployment rate and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys. Some price action could also be seen earlier in the day upon the release of Eurozone’s revised GDP and Canada’s unemployment rate.
The EUR/USD pair advanced 0.7% on Thursday, moving closer to the 1.0600 threshold as upbeat European Retail Sales data and risk-on sentiment supported the euro.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to announce another 25-basis-point rate cut next week as it aims to stimulate sluggish economic activity. Despite recent political turbulence in France, market participants remain focused on economic and monetary developments.
On the U.S. front, labor market data painted a mixed picture ahead of Friday’s pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29 climbed to a six-week high of 224,000, missing expectations of 215,000.
Gold prices declined on Thursday, retreating 0.63% as rising U.S. Treasury bond yields weighed on the metal. The pullback comes as investors digested higher-than-expected jobless claims data ahead of the much-anticipated November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Traders are now turning their attention to November’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, set to be released on Friday, alongside the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. These reports are expected to offer critical clues about the strength of the U.S. labor market and consumer outlook, shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as ongoing concerns about oversupply outweighed early gains spurred by OPEC+’s decision to postpone its planned production increases.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced it would delay the restart of its oil production increases by three months, pushing the timeline to April.
This marks the third postponement of OPEC+ production increases, as the group seeks to maintain tighter supply conditions amid concerns about slowing global oil demand, particularly in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has traveled to Qatar and Israel to advance diplomatic efforts aimed at securing a Gaza ceasefire and a hostage release deal before the inauguration on January 20, according to Reuters.
The US 500 edged lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day streak of record closes, as investors assessed a mix of corporate earnings and labor market data ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 224,000 for the week ending November 30, surpassing economists’ consensus of 215,000 and marking an increase from the previous week’s upwardly revised 215,000.
Despite the surprise uptick, the labor market is still viewed as robust, with many analysts anticipating a rebound in job creation following October’s hurricane-related slowdown.
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