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10/01/2025 - 08:07 UTCThe US Dollar Index (USDX), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, ticked higher as inflation concerns gripped markets. The Greenback remained steady at current levels, with the USDX hovering above the 109.00 mark. Strong demand, coupled with ongoing signals of monetary policy tightening, provided support.
Meanwhile, inflation fears triggered a mini crisis in the UK Gilts market, adding to global economic unease. The US economic calendar was light yesterday, with a shortened trading day in observance of the National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Investors now await Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December, which could offer critical insights into labor market momentum and its potential policy implications.
On the earnings front, the fourth-quarter earnings season is poised to kick off in earnest next week, with several major banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Company, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, and Citigroup Inc, scheduled to release their reports on Wednesday. The focus will primarily be on whether the resilience of the U.S. economy translated into robust corporate earnings and whether the heavyweight technology stocks—key drivers of Wall Street’s performance in 2024—were able to sustain their earnings momentum.
Gold prices edged higher yesterday, supported by safe-haven demand amid lingering uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's proposed trade tariffs.
On the energy front, oil prices rose on Thursday as cold weather across parts of the U.S. and Europe drove up winter fuel demand. The cold snap, which included winter storm warnings across east Texas and parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast, has led to increased demand for heating fuels and higher refinery activity.
With markets now focusing on the December NFP report, investors anticipate a slowdown in the headline figure from 227,000 to 160,000. The upcoming data is expected to be a critical driver in shaping expectations around the labor market and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path in the coming month.
The EUR/USD pair extended its bearish trend on Thursday, slipping another modest yet consistent 0.16%.
Disappointing European retail sales data added downward pressure on the Euro. November’s retail sales missed forecasts, and annualized retail sales for December grew by just 1.2% YoY, a sharp decline from November’s revised figure of 2.1%.
In the United States, anticipation of Friday’s NFP report looms large, keeping trading volumes subdued. December’s NFP data is expected to show a slight slowdown in job creation, with wage growth predicted to remain flat or ease slightly on a monthly basis. Surprises in wage or job growth, however, could disrupt market expectations for potential rate cuts in 2025. Persistent wage inflation would sustain higher inflation expectations, leaving the Federal Reserve little incentive to ease its monetary policy stance.
Gold prices surged for a third consecutive session on Thursday, rising 0.28% as safe-haven demand strengthened in response to uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump and the United Kingdom’s ongoing budget crisis.
On Wednesday, CNN reported that Donald Trump may be considering declaring a national economic emergency, potentially enabling him to impose tariffs on both adversaries and allies. This news added fuel to safe-haven inflows.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on the upcoming release of December U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment index, key indicators that could shape market sentiment heading into next week.
Oil prices rose over 1% on Thursday as frigid temperatures across the U.S. and Europe drove a surge in demand for winter heating fuels.
Large parts of the U.S., including regions from east Texas to northern Kentucky, were under a winter storm warning on Thursday, with the National Weather Service highlighting significant ice accumulation risks across Arkansas and Tennessee.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions could further impact oil markets. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions targeting Russia’s economy this week to bolster Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Russia’s oil industry has been a key focus of previous sanctions.
U.S. stock index futures declined on Thursday as persistent concerns over a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 weighed on sentiment. Investors are now awaiting the upcoming December nonfarm payrolls data for further economic cues.
The fourth-quarter earnings season is set to kick off in earnest next week, with major banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup set to report results.
Trading volumes remained thin on Thursday due to a market holiday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter.
Investors are turning their focus to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for December, which could provide insight into the labor market and the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
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