The US dollar experienced a moderate uptick on Tuesday, with the dollar index (USDX) closing 0.04% higher as investors maintained a cautious stance, ahead of the upcoming U.S. inflation data that could provide more guidance on the potential size of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. The upcoming US inflation report could play a key role in the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. If inflation remains low, the Fed may be more inclined to cut rates. The CPI and core CPI are expected to rise 0.2% in August following similar advances in July.
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 71% chance of a 0.25% interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in September. While a larger cut of 0.5% is seen as less likely at 29%, there is still a significant probability of further easing in November, with odds currently standing at 52.1%.
In other news, the first presidential debate was finalized with Vice President Kamala Harris repeatedly bringing up sensitive topics, drawing strong responses from the former president. However, she failed to address the current economic situation after four years under the Biden administration. The debate underscored the potential for a highly volatile 2024 presidential election, which could have significant implications for market stability given the candidates' major differences on key policy issues.
United States stock index futures exhibited a narrow trading range on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 registering slight upward movements. The ascent in the technology sector partially offset declines in energy and financial sectors, anticipating the release of a significant inflation report a day ahead of an important inflation report.
In corporate news, Apple's stock declined following a European Court of Justice ruling requiring the company to pay 13 billion euros in back taxes. The news comes one day after Apple's unveiling of the iPhone 16 on Monday, which is slated to go on sale September 20 with pre-orders commencing this Friday in an effort to boost weak sales of the device.
Within the energy sector, the two principal crude oil benchmarks, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, exhibited fell sharply on Tuesday, with the move primarily attributed to escalating concerns regarding oversupply and a pessimistic outlook for demand.
A series of key economic reports are scheduled for release this week, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index figures occupying the center of attention.