In the Week ahead: FOMC Meeting Minutes, U.S CPI, Unemployment Claims

EUR/USD traded near the 1.1000 mark on Friday, retracing some of its earlier weekly gains. The pair’s pullback came after remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who raised concerns over the potential inflationary impact of recently announced tariffs. Powell indicated that the tariffs could have a larger-than-expected effect on inflation and cloud the outlook for monetary policy, which dampened market sentiment. Despite the pullback, EUR/USD remains within a bullish structure, supported by key moving averages.

In the U.S., the March Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a solid increase of 228,000 jobs, well above expectations. However, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2%, and annual wage growth slightly slowed to 3.8%. Powell’s cautious tone regarding the potential for tariffs to stoke inflation risks suggests that a rate cut is unlikely in the near term, adding further uncertainty to market outlooks.

Bitcoin fell sharply in early Monday trading, extending its recent losses as risk appetite was severely dampened by U.S. President Donald Trump's new trade tariffs, which have sparked fears of a global trade war. The cryptocurrency market, along with global equities, faced significant pressure as traders became increasingly risk-averse. Bitcoin dropped below $75,000 at the time of writing on the iForex platform (07:00 GMT).

The broader cryptocurrency market also took a hit, with total market capitalization slumping by approximately $500 billion since last week. Trump's tariffs, which have led to retaliatory measures from other countries, have decimated global equity markets, wiping out around $4 trillion. With heightened uncertainty, investors turned to safer assets like gold and the Japanese yen, further weighing on speculative assets like Bitcoin.

As traders remain on edge, the risk of a “Black Monday” market event loom, with potential ripple effects across both traditional and crypto markets.

Oil prices plunged more than 6% on Friday, settling at their lowest in over three years, as China escalated its trade war with the U.S. by ramping up tariffs on American goods. The move added to recession fears, as investors priced in a higher likelihood of a global economic slowdown. China, the world's top oil importer, announced it would impose additional tariffs of 34% on all U.S. goods from April 10, exacerbating the trade tensions that have already sparked retaliatory measures from other nations.

Adding to the pressure, OPEC+ accelerated its plans for output increases, now aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, further weighing on prices. With rising tariffs and a potential global slowdown, analysts have adjusted their price outlook, with Goldman Sachs revising its December 2025 targets lower by $5 for both Brent and WTI.

U.S. stock index futures tumbled on Sunday evening following Wall Street’s steepest two-day drop in over five years, triggered by President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs. Trump insisted that the tariffs are necessary to address trade deficits with China and the European Union, but retaliation from China—imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods—has escalated the trade conflict, amplifying global market instability.

The US Tech 100 ended last week with substantial losses of 9.88%, while the US 500 lost 9.18% and US 30 dropped 7.96%. Tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia suffered sharp declines, with Apple falling 7.14% on Friday. As a company heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing and global supply chains, Apple faces increased costs due to the 54% tariffs imposed on Chinese imports.

On the data front, the U.S. economy exceeded expectations by adding more jobs in March. However, the previous month's figure was significantly revised downward, and the unemployment rate rose, contributing to ongoing economic uncertainty.